The energy situation in the first nine months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
The energy situation in the first nine months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
During the first nine months of 2015, the primary energy consumption is expected to be 2,646 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, increase from the same period in 2014 by 2.7 percent. Oil consumption is expected to increase by 4.1 percent as oil prices are likely to decrease. The natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 2.4 percent due to the increasing of power generation by Independent Power Producers (IPP) and Small Power Producer (SPP). The coal consumption is expected to increase by 3.8 percent since been used in industry for the replacement of lignite that was decreased by constraints of volume production of lignite in the country. The consumption of lignite is expected to fall 22.6 percent compared to the same period last year. This is because of the shutdown for maintenance of lignite power plant and the reducing in electricity production of the Mae Moh power plant to make the transmission system more capacity for the synchronize testing of Hongsa power plant. The hydropower and electricity imports consumption are expected to decline 17.2 percent due to low rainfall over the past few years. This cause the amount of water used to produce electricity low. The renewable energy consumption is expected to rise 7.3 percent.
Primary Energy Consumption
Unit: kilo barrels of oil equivalent per day
Remark /1 not include Non – Energy use
/Pestimated from data as of September 2015
In the first nine months of the year 2015, the petroleum products consumption was at 142 million liters per day increased 1.8 percent. The demand of gasoline rose 13.4 percent due to a decrease of domestic gasoline the retail price which was affected by the decline in oil prices in the world market. The expansions of the tourism sector make diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 3.4 and 9.6 percent respectively. Use of fuel oil dropped 5.9 percent from its use as a fuel to produce electricity.
The LPG consumption in the first nine months of 2015 has decreased by 9.4 percent due to lower demand in the high energy consumption proportion economic sector. Consumption in the petrochemical sector which has the highest proportion (32 percent) have decreased by 17.2 percent. In the households sector (with 31 percent share), The LPG consumption have decreased by 4.9 percent and steadily declined since the start of stringent measures to suppress the illegal distribution of LPG misuse. LPG consumption in transportation sector (26 percent share) have decreased 10.8 percent due to an increase in LPG prices, as oil prices fell, some turn to make the use of petroleum fuel, instead of using LPG. While the industrial sector has increased LPG demand by 3.8 percent.
Petroleum Products Consumption
Unit: million liters
Remark LPG include the utilized as feed stock of petrochemical
LPG, Propane and Butane Consumption
Unit: thousand tons
Fuel consumption for land transport
In the first nine months of 2015, the fuel consumption in land transport sector stood at 16 386 kilo tons of oil equivalent (ktoe) increase over the same period of the previous year by 4.0 percent. It is caused by an increase in the use of gasoline and diesel. The diesel (Holds up to 46 percent of energy use in all sectors of land transport) has increased by 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year.While the uses of LPG and NGV in the car (13 and 9 percent, respectively) are down 10.8 and 2.6 percent, respectively, this is a major cause of the decline in prices. Gasoline and diesel steadily since mid-2014, and the price hike of LPG and NGV in 2014 for restructuring policies to reflect the true cost of government. The average retail price of LPG and NGV in the transport sector rose 2.38 and 2.50 baht per kg. The limitations of NGV service stations that still is not enough to make the use of LPG and NGV partial return to the oil.
The current retail price of LPG and NGV is at 22.29 and 13.50 baht per kilogram (Approved by the Board of Directors Energy Policy Administration on September 8, 2015), while the number of NGV service stations at the end of September 2015 totaled 500 stations, up from the previous year, only 4 stations.
The Energy Consumption in Land Transportation Sector
unit : ktoe
Remark /P estimated from data as of September 2015
The production and consumption of electricity during the first nine months of 2015
FT during September - October 2015 stood at 46.38 satang per unit, down 3.23 satang per unit compared with the May - August 2015. In November 2015, the electricity bill will be restructured so the FT from November 2558 will be stood at -3.23 satang per unit.
The electricity consumption during the first nine months of the year 2015is approximated to be 130,800 gigawatt hours. It is increased 3.2 percent due to the hot weather in the summer and rainfall slower than last year. The electricity utilization increased in almost all sectors except agriculture.
The tariff formulated by automatically tariff adjustment formula (Ft).
Unit: Satang/unit
Price and value of Energy Import
Crude oil prices (The average price of Dubai) during the month of September 2015 stood at US $ 45.38 a barrel, down 2.32 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in the month of August 2015 due to the concerns over supply condition.
The price of gasoline and diesel fuel (average price in Singapore market) during the month of September 2015 is at US $ 65.24 a barrel, down 0.74 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in the previous month due to inventory is high. While diesel averaged price is at US $ 59.48 a barrel rose 2.44 US dollars per barrel due to increased demand from China, Vietnam, Myanmar and West Africa and several refineries were shut down for maintenance.
The total energy imported value during the first 9 months of 2015 was estimated at 719 billion baht, down 35.0 percent compared to the same period in 2014 due to a decrease in the price of imported energy. The import value of each type of energy is reduction. Except natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are increasing as the volume of imports. The value of imports increased by 12.2 and 6.1 percent, respectively. The value of crude oil imported fell 39.2 percent according to crude oil price in the world market. The reduction of coal prices in the world market make the coal imported value fell by 4.2 percent compared to the same period last year. The value of imported petroleum products is down 53.6 percent due to the reduction of petroleum products volume and prices. The electricity imported value decreased 4.9 % by the reduction of imported volume.
Energy Imported Value
Unit: billion Baht
Remark /P estimated from data as of September 2015
Trends in energy consumption in 2015
Primary energy demand forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 is estimated at 2623 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day increase of 2.8 percent compared to the same period in 2014. It is expected that there will be increased demand for each kind of energy except the lignite consumption is expected to decrease as domestic production volumes of lignite continues steadily declined. It expected at 21.3 percent demand reduction. Oil consumption is expected to increase by 2.7 percent as oil prices are likely to stay low. It is because of the expansion in tourism sector. It affected that gasoline, diesel and jet fuel consumption has increased as well as the first nine months of 2015. Natural gas consumption during the fourth quarter of 2015 is expected to increase by 0.4 percent. Hydropower / electricity imports are expected to have a 13.8 percent increase. This is because the increasing of electricity imports by the commercial commissioning of Hongsa Power Plant Unit 2 in November 2015. While the use of coal in the fourth quarter of 2558 is expected to increase slightly. (increase 0.1 percent compared to the same period of 22014) and the renewable energy is expected to increase at 12.7 percent by the enhancing renewable energy utilization policies of Ministry of Energy.
The primary energy consumption in 2015 is estimated at 2,640 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day increase 2.7 percent compared with the year 2014. It expand according to the 2015 economic growth. Predicts that the use of oil for the year 2558 will increase by 3.7 percent for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The use of natural gas will increase by 1.9 percent and the coal consumption is expected to increase at 2.8 percent to replace the need of lignite in industrial sector. It is expected that the lignite consumption in 2015 will be down to 22.3 percent based on the decline production volumes by the private of lignite mining and manufacturer. The maintenance of Mae Moh power plant and limitations of the transmission system after the synchronize of Hongsa power plant will decrease the consumption of lignite too. While the use of hydropower and electricity imports are expected to decline 11.9 percent from hydroelectric power drop during the dry season and the less rain fall in 2015. In the year 2015, the renewable energy consumption is expected to increase by 8.6 percent compared to the previous year.
The petroleum products consumption in 2015 is expected to increase by 1.2 percent. The gasoline consumption increased by 12.5 percent due to the drop in gasoline prices, especially in the first half, by the decreasing of gasoline average retail price that affected to rise up the consumption of gasoline to 14.0 percent For diesel, are expected to have increased by 3.3 percent and jet fuel rose 8.1 percent based on the expansion of the tourism sector.
The LPG consumption in 2015 is estimated to have decreased 10.7 percent due to lower demand for household use in the transportation sector and the petrochemical industry. Using the car is expected to decline 11.9 percent due to an increase in LPG prices, as oil prices fell, some turn to make the use of LPG instead of gasoline. The household sector decreased by 4.1 percent. For use in the petrochemical industry is expected to have decreased by 20.6 percent due to the impact of the export slowdown while the manufacturing sector is estimated to have increased by 3.4 percent due to lower prices on the market.
Electricity consumption in 2015 is expected to have a power rating of 173 862 GWh increased 3.1 percent compared to the year 2014. This because the increasing of electricity consumption in almost economic sector except for agriculture which has been affected by drought.
Estimated Primary Energy Consumption
Unit : Kilo Barrel of Oil Equivalent/day
หมายเหตุ /1Not include Non – Energy use
/Pestimated from data as of September 2015
/Festimated from data as of 4th semester of 2015
Energy Forecast and Information Technology Center
Energy Policy and Planning Office
October 28, 2015