The energy situation in the first tenth months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
The energy situation in the first tenth months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
Office of Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) forecasted that Thailand's economy in the 3rd quarter of 2015 will grow by 2.9 percent compared to the GDP growth in Q2 (Q2. the economy grew 2.8 per cent).
The expansion in agricultural manufacturing and export sectors are likely to be lower than expected but there are still driven by the tourism sector. Tourist is expected to arrive in the country up to 30 million people throughout the year.
However, Thailand's economy this year has been affected by drought and the global economic recovery continues to be delayed. The price of crude oil imports in 2015 was lower down. As a result, export prices on world markets fell. It forecasts that the average Dubai crude oil price in 2015 is at 52.5 USD per barrel lower than the assumption price of the forecast (Assuming that 50 - 60 USD per barrel).
The economic outlook for Thailand in 2016, NESDB. Is expected that it will expand by 3.0 - 4.0 percent by Government spending and public investment Including the stimulus and the recovery of global economic.
EPPO, Predicted that the final energy consumption in 2016 is expected to rise to 2.7 - 3.5 percent due to the economic recovery and oil prices remain low. This is consistent with the NESDB economic forecasted that Thailand's economy will expand by 3.0 - 4.0 percent
Electricity consumption in the first 10 months of 2015.
In the first 10 months of 2015, electricity consumption is expected to be 145,760 Gigawatt-hour Increased 3.2 percent because of the prolonged period of hot weather, the expansion of the business sector, especially tourism, business services and construction. Electricity consumption increased in almost every sectors except the agricultural sector that the consumption decline because of drought. The industrial sector accounts for the peak load representing 43 percent of total use. Electricity consumption has increased by 1.0 percent compared to the same period last year. The consumption of electricity in Household account for 24 percent of the total 5.2 percent increase in consumer spending due to the increase attributed to the hot weather. The small enterprises consumption and electrical appliances consumption have increased by 5.5 and 4.6 percent respectively.
Net Peak Generation Requirement in EGAT System was occurred at the temperature of 36.7 degrees Celsius on Thursday 11 June 2015 at 14.02 hrs. at 27 346 megawatts. It is higher than the Peak of the year which occurred on Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 14:26 hrs. at 404 MW, an increase of 1.5 percent.
The predicted peak of the year 2016, EPPO, predicted Peak in two cases: 1) Base Case forecasts the Peak at 28,300 MW 2) If the temperature rises 3 degrees Celsius. predicted Peak was at 29,000 megawatts, the ministry has set up a surveillance at 28,500 megawatts.
The projected value Peak in the year 2016, if temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius, the expected value Peak is located at 29,000 MW, which is higher than the level of surveillance of the energy required by the government is taking measures to reduce the Maximum peak Demand by the following measures;
1) Measures “Demand Respond”
2) Measures Campaign "Energy divided by two."
3) Measures “Changed by high performance device”
FT during September - October 2015 stood at 46.38 satang per unit, down 3.23 satang per unit compared with the May - August 2015. In November 2015, the electricity bill will be restructured so the FT from November 2558 will be stood at -3.23 satang per unit.
The tariff formulated by automatically tariff adjustment formula (Ft).
- Unit: Satang/unit
In the first ten months of 2015, the petroleum products consumption was increased 1.5 percent. The demand of gasoline rose 13.2 percent due to a decrease of domestic gasoline retailed price which was affected by the decline in oil prices in the world market. The expansions of the tourism sector make diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 3.4 and 9.2 percent respectively. Use of fuel oil dropped 5.7 percent.
The LPG consumption in the first ten months of 2015 has decreased by 10.3 percent due to lower demand in the high energy consumption proportion economic sector. Consumption in the petrochemical sector which has the highest proportion (32 percent) has decreased by 19.5 percent. In the households sector (with 31 percent share), The LPG consumption have decreased by 4.6 percent and steadily declined since the start of stringent measures to suppress the illegal distribution of LPG misuse. LPG consumption in transportation sector (26 percent share) have decreased 11.4 percent due to an increase in LPG prices, as oil prices fell, some turn to make use of petroleum fuel, instead of using LPG. While the industrial sector has increased LPG demand by 3.7 percent.
Petroleum Products Consumption
Unit: million liters
Remark /Pestimated from data as of September 2015
LPG include the utilized as feed stock of petrochemical
LPG, Propane and Butane Consumption
Unit: thousand tons
Remark /Pestimated from data as of October 2015
สัดส่วนการใช้ LPG ม ค -ต ค 2558
Fuel consumption for land transport
In the first 10 months of 2015, the fuel consumption in land transport sector stood at 18,165 kilo tons of oil equivalent (ktoe) increase over the same period of the previous year by 3.8 percent. It is caused by an increase in the use of gasoline and diesel. The diesel (Holds up to 46 percent of energy use in all sectors of land transport) has increased by 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year.While the uses of LPG and NGV in the car (9 and 13 percent, respectively) are down 11.4 and 3.3 percent, respectively, this is a major cause of the decline in prices. Gasoline and diesel steadily since mid-2014, and the price hike of LPG and NGV in 2014 for restructuring policies to reflect the true cost of government. The average retail price of LPG and NGV in the transport sector rose 2.08 and 2.45 baht per kg. The limitations of NGV service stations that still is not enough to make the use of LPG and NGV partial return to the oil.
In the first 10 months of 2015, the average retail price of LPG and NGV is at 23.55 and 13.05 baht per kilogram), up 2.08 and 2.45 baht per kilogram, respectively, compare to the same period last year. While the cumulative NGV car is at 471.392, increase 2.6 percent, in October 2015. The NGV service stations at the end of October 2015 totaled 500 stations, up from the previous year, only 4 stations.
The Energy Consumption in Land Transportation Sector
unit : ktoe
Remark /Pestimated from data as of October 2015
Price and value of Energy Import
Crude oil prices (The average price of Dubai) during October 2015 was at $46.02 a barrel, up 0.64 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in September 2015 due to the concerns over supply condition.
The price of gasoline and diesel fuel (average price in Singapore market) during the month of October 2015 was at US $ 63.54 a barrel, down 1.70 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in the previous month due to inventory is high. While diesel averaged price is at US $ 59.21 a barrel low down 0.27 US dollars per barrel due to increasing of demand from the starting operation of oil refinery. However, diesel prices fell less than the price of gasoline due to increased demand from Asian countries.
The total energy imported value during the first 10 months of 2015 was estimated at 791 billion baht, down 35.1 percent compared to the same period in 2014 due to a decrease in the price of imported energy. The import value of each type of energy is reducing. Except natural gas, electricity and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are increasing as the volume of imports. The value of imports increased by 17.8, 8.0 and 2.3 percent, respectively. The value of crude oil imported fell 39.7 percent according to crude oil price in the world market. The reduction of coal prices in the world market make the coal imported value fell by 4.5 percent compared to the same period last year. The value of imported petroleum products is down 52.8 percent due to the reduction of petroleum products volume and prices.
Energy Imported Value
Unit: billion Baht
Remark /P estimated from data as of October 2015
Energy Forecast and Information Technology Center
Energy Policy and Planning Office
November 24, 2015