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Thailand Energy Report 2015
Thailand Energy Report 2015
“In 2015, Energy production in Thailand decreased, resulting in more imports to meet domestic demand. The final energy consumption increased by 4.0% because the Thai economy started to recover (GDP grew by 2.8%) while the energy prices are in a downtrend due to the oversupply of oil, natural gas and coal in the world market. The prices of Diesel, Gasoline and Gasohol increased from the low level. The jet fuel consumption increased by the number of foreign tourists. The foreign Tourists were 29.9 million increases about 5 million people compare to previous year. The electricity consumption increased because the longer period of hot weather occurred and the expansion of the business sector is another key factor that affected the increasing electricity consumption in 2015.
The commercial primary energy production was at 1,026 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, down by 4.3%. Production of lignite decreased due to the reduction of Mae Moh power plant and industrial sectors demand. The hydroelectric decreased as well from the decreased of water reserve and the lower rain fall compared to the same period last year.
The net primary energy imported stood at 1,251 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. It is increase by 6.8%. The net import of energy was increased, In particular, the electricity imported that increased because the starting of electric supply from Hongsa power plant in Lao PDR., in February 2015. The import of natural gas increased since August 2014 by the selling of natural gas from the Zortica in Myanmar together with the increasing of LNG imports.
The final energy consumption was 1,420 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, or 4.0% up, according to Thailand's economy grew at 2.8%. it is a result of government stimulus policies that enhance the consumption and investment within the country. The 54% share of final energy
consumption is for petroleum products.
The value of energy imported was at 912,931 million baht, down 34.8%. The main factor that reduced energy imported value is the low of crude oil prices (crude oil has 65% share of the total Thailand energy imports) and the average price of imported crude oil in Thailand was at 54.3 US $ / BBL in 2015. The imported value of all kinds of energy reduced due to the reduction of energy prices except electricity and LNG imports increased because the expansion of imported volumes.
The value of energy exports stood at 218,472 million baht, down 31.3%, due in no crude exports from September 2557 to November 2558 in accordance with government policy.In December 2558, it began exporting crude oil from the Wassana Resource because the refineries in the country cannot be refined. The exported petroleum product price was lower compared to the previous year.
Energy Prices
Dubai crude oil price in December 2015 is averaged at 34.6 USD / BBL but the average price of 2015 was at 50.8 USD / BBL. The crude oil price was fluctuated because of the over oil supply that was affected by the slowdown of global economy growth and the levelize of oil production to maintain the market share of OPEC and Russia aAnd the El Nino phenomenon, resulting in temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, higher than normal levels in the winter.
In December 2015, gasoline retail prices in the ASEAN region fell by almost countries except Brunei that has fixed prices. The retail price of diesel dropped by the whole region.
The price of LPG (CP) in December 2015 was 466 US $ / ton increase from the previous month in November 2015, which is at 411 US $ / ton. The retail price of LPG in the month of December 2015 stood at 22.29 baht / kg. This price was freeze in order to low down effect of the cost of living.
LNG prices in the world market dropped from oversupply in the world market and as a result of the weather in the East are not very cold, like every year. The oil price is low so it was used to replace some LNG in some country.
Crude oil supply is 1,028 thousand barrels per day by 85% of imports. The 8.8% increase in imports, mainly from Middle East countries. The rest is domestic production rose 10.0%, the refining capacity of the country stood at 1,252 thousand barrels per day. Crude was used in Refining for 90% of the refining capacity..
Petroleum products consumption is at 132 million liters per day, up 4.3%.
The diesel consumption is at 60.1 million liters per day accounted for 46% of all petroleum products. It is increased 4.1% by the prices reduction.
The consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel was at 26.4 million liters per day. Accounted for 20% of all petroleum products consumption. The demand rose to 13.2% due to the low oil prices that encourage the auto LPG and NGV users turning to use more oil because it is cheaper and more convenient evenly over the service station.
Jet fuel consumption was at 16.5 million liters per day, up 9.4% from the expansion in tourism sector. In 2015, the foreign tourists come to visit at 29.9 million people, up from about 5 million from the years ago.
The LPG consumption was at 6,695 thousand tons, down 10.9%, the consumption of LPG in several sector will be described as follow;
Petrochemical industry (As raw material) accounted for most of the 32% decrease of 20.6% from the slowdown of downstream industries and the export sector is still shrinking.
Households sector accounted for 31%, down 4.3%, it was a result from the adjusting retail LPG prices structure to reflect actual costs, that effected the prices in household sector higher than the last year prices so there was no motive to smuggle LPG.
Automobile consumption fell 12.3% due to lower oil prices resulting that some users turn to oil instead of LPG.
Industry consume 3.0% up compared to the previous year by adjusting the price to equal the household and transportation sector price.
The refineries self-consumption increased to 50.6% due to excess LPG from other sector.
Natural Gas
The natural gas consumption was at 4764 million cubic feet per day, up by 2.0%. It is increased 4.3% for electricity generation (share of NG for electricity generation is about 60%) while the consumption of NG in other sector were slowdown especially in the consumption as NGV that decreased by 4.1% from the price increased from last year. Another factor that affected to decrease NG consumption is the decreasing of oil price. The fell down of oil price and some limitation of NGV service station make some of NGV car owner convert their engine to use oil instead of NGV. There are only 500 NGV stations in the whole country at the end of December 2015.
Lignite / Coal
The supply of lignite / coal was at 37.1 million tons, down by 4.7% compared to previous year. Lignite production decreased by 15.7% from the domestic demand reduction. While imports of coal increased 4.8% by the increasing of the industrial sector consumption.
- The lignite consumption was at 15.1 million tons, down 17.8%. This is because of the decreasing in electricity production of Mae Moh power plant that was affected by limitations of the transmission line. Another reason was the feeding electricity in the transmission system of Hongsa power plant in February 2015 and the decreased of electricity consumption in the industrial sector.
The imported coal consumption was at 21.9 million tons, up 5.0%. The consumption is mainly in the industrial sector, which rose 11.4%, to replace lignite. While the imported coal consumption decreased in electric generation sector.
Electricity
The generation power in the electrical system at the end of December 2015 was at 38,815 MW (excluding the production of electricity from power plants VSPP). The EGAT has a maximum production capacity (40%), followed by the IPP (38 %), SPP (13%) and import / foreign exchange (9%).
Electricity production was at 192,189 GWh (including the generation from VSPP) increased 3.3%. The fuels used to produce electricity are natural gas (67%), renewable energy (5%). The Production of electricity by RE increased 10.4% compared to last year. This is because of the promotion of RE in electricity generation of Ministry of Energy.
The Net Peak Generation Requirement occurred at 27,346 MW on Thursday, June 11, 2015 at 14:02 hrs. It is up 1.5% compared to last year, due to the hot weather for a long time, resulting in peak shift from April or May to be June this year.
Power consumption was 174,834 GWh, increased 3.7% from the hot weather, and the expansion of the business sector especially in Tourism and construction sector. While the electricity consumption in the industrial sector was slowly increase because of a contraction of exports that impacted by the low expansion of global economy. Also the electricity consumption increased by nearly all economic sectors except for use in agriculture decreased due to serere drought.
CO2 emissions in energy consumptions
In 2015, a CO2 emission from energy consumption was at 254 million tons of CO2 increased by 1.6%. CO2 emissions came from the transportation, industrial and other economic sectors (including households, agriculture and commerce), while the CO2 emissions is reduced in electricity production. The CO2 emissions per energy consumption was at 1.96 tons of CO2 per KTOE. It is lower than the world average in 2013, which stood at 2.40 tons of CO2 per KTOE.
Data as of March 10, 2016
The energy situation in the first tenth months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
The energy situation in the first tenth months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
Office of Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) forecasted that Thailand's economy in the 3rd quarter of 2015 will grow by 2.9 percent compared to the GDP growth in Q2 (Q2. the economy grew 2.8 per cent).
The expansion in agricultural manufacturing and export sectors are likely to be lower than expected but there are still driven by the tourism sector. Tourist is expected to arrive in the country up to 30 million people throughout the year.
However, Thailand's economy this year has been affected by drought and the global economic recovery continues to be delayed. The price of crude oil imports in 2015 was lower down. As a result, export prices on world markets fell. It forecasts that the average Dubai crude oil price in 2015 is at 52.5 USD per barrel lower than the assumption price of the forecast (Assuming that 50 - 60 USD per barrel).
The economic outlook for Thailand in 2016, NESDB. Is expected that it will expand by 3.0 - 4.0 percent by Government spending and public investment Including the stimulus and the recovery of global economic.
EPPO, Predicted that the final energy consumption in 2016 is expected to rise to 2.7 - 3.5 percent due to the economic recovery and oil prices remain low. This is consistent with the NESDB economic forecasted that Thailand's economy will expand by 3.0 - 4.0 percent
Electricity consumption in the first 10 months of 2015.
In the first 10 months of 2015, electricity consumption is expected to be 145,760 Gigawatt-hour Increased 3.2 percent because of the prolonged period of hot weather, the expansion of the business sector, especially tourism, business services and construction. Electricity consumption increased in almost every sectors except the agricultural sector that the consumption decline because of drought. The industrial sector accounts for the peak load representing 43 percent of total use. Electricity consumption has increased by 1.0 percent compared to the same period last year. The consumption of electricity in Household account for 24 percent of the total 5.2 percent increase in consumer spending due to the increase attributed to the hot weather. The small enterprises consumption and electrical appliances consumption have increased by 5.5 and 4.6 percent respectively.
Net Peak Generation Requirement in EGAT System was occurred at the temperature of 36.7 degrees Celsius on Thursday 11 June 2015 at 14.02 hrs. at 27 346 megawatts. It is higher than the Peak of the year which occurred on Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 14:26 hrs. at 404 MW, an increase of 1.5 percent.
The predicted peak of the year 2016, EPPO, predicted Peak in two cases: 1) Base Case forecasts the Peak at 28,300 MW 2) If the temperature rises 3 degrees Celsius. predicted Peak was at 29,000 megawatts, the ministry has set up a surveillance at 28,500 megawatts.
The projected value Peak in the year 2016, if temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius, the expected value Peak is located at 29,000 MW, which is higher than the level of surveillance of the energy required by the government is taking measures to reduce the Maximum peak Demand by the following measures;
1) Measures “Demand Respond”
2) Measures Campaign "Energy divided by two."
3) Measures “Changed by high performance device”
FT during September - October 2015 stood at 46.38 satang per unit, down 3.23 satang per unit compared with the May - August 2015. In November 2015, the electricity bill will be restructured so the FT from November 2558 will be stood at -3.23 satang per unit.
The tariff formulated by automatically tariff adjustment formula (Ft).
- Unit: Satang/unit
In the first ten months of 2015, the petroleum products consumption was increased 1.5 percent. The demand of gasoline rose 13.2 percent due to a decrease of domestic gasoline retailed price which was affected by the decline in oil prices in the world market. The expansions of the tourism sector make diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 3.4 and 9.2 percent respectively. Use of fuel oil dropped 5.7 percent.
The LPG consumption in the first ten months of 2015 has decreased by 10.3 percent due to lower demand in the high energy consumption proportion economic sector. Consumption in the petrochemical sector which has the highest proportion (32 percent) has decreased by 19.5 percent. In the households sector (with 31 percent share), The LPG consumption have decreased by 4.6 percent and steadily declined since the start of stringent measures to suppress the illegal distribution of LPG misuse. LPG consumption in transportation sector (26 percent share) have decreased 11.4 percent due to an increase in LPG prices, as oil prices fell, some turn to make use of petroleum fuel, instead of using LPG. While the industrial sector has increased LPG demand by 3.7 percent.
Petroleum Products Consumption
Unit: million liters
Remark /Pestimated from data as of September 2015
LPG include the utilized as feed stock of petrochemical
LPG, Propane and Butane Consumption
Unit: thousand tons
Remark /Pestimated from data as of October 2015
สัดส่วนการใช้ LPG ม ค -ต ค 2558
Fuel consumption for land transport
In the first 10 months of 2015, the fuel consumption in land transport sector stood at 18,165 kilo tons of oil equivalent (ktoe) increase over the same period of the previous year by 3.8 percent. It is caused by an increase in the use of gasoline and diesel. The diesel (Holds up to 46 percent of energy use in all sectors of land transport) has increased by 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year.While the uses of LPG and NGV in the car (9 and 13 percent, respectively) are down 11.4 and 3.3 percent, respectively, this is a major cause of the decline in prices. Gasoline and diesel steadily since mid-2014, and the price hike of LPG and NGV in 2014 for restructuring policies to reflect the true cost of government. The average retail price of LPG and NGV in the transport sector rose 2.08 and 2.45 baht per kg. The limitations of NGV service stations that still is not enough to make the use of LPG and NGV partial return to the oil.
In the first 10 months of 2015, the average retail price of LPG and NGV is at 23.55 and 13.05 baht per kilogram), up 2.08 and 2.45 baht per kilogram, respectively, compare to the same period last year. While the cumulative NGV car is at 471.392, increase 2.6 percent, in October 2015. The NGV service stations at the end of October 2015 totaled 500 stations, up from the previous year, only 4 stations.
The Energy Consumption in Land Transportation Sector
unit : ktoe
Remark /Pestimated from data as of October 2015
Price and value of Energy Import
Crude oil prices (The average price of Dubai) during October 2015 was at $46.02 a barrel, up 0.64 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in September 2015 due to the concerns over supply condition.
The price of gasoline and diesel fuel (average price in Singapore market) during the month of October 2015 was at US $ 63.54 a barrel, down 1.70 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in the previous month due to inventory is high. While diesel averaged price is at US $ 59.21 a barrel low down 0.27 US dollars per barrel due to increasing of demand from the starting operation of oil refinery. However, diesel prices fell less than the price of gasoline due to increased demand from Asian countries.
The total energy imported value during the first 10 months of 2015 was estimated at 791 billion baht, down 35.1 percent compared to the same period in 2014 due to a decrease in the price of imported energy. The import value of each type of energy is reducing. Except natural gas, electricity and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are increasing as the volume of imports. The value of imports increased by 17.8, 8.0 and 2.3 percent, respectively. The value of crude oil imported fell 39.7 percent according to crude oil price in the world market. The reduction of coal prices in the world market make the coal imported value fell by 4.5 percent compared to the same period last year. The value of imported petroleum products is down 52.8 percent due to the reduction of petroleum products volume and prices.
Energy Imported Value
Unit: billion Baht
Remark /P estimated from data as of October 2015
Energy Forecast and Information Technology Center
Energy Policy and Planning Office
November 24, 2015
The energy situation in the first nine months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
The energy situation in the first nine months of 2015 and outlook for 2015
During the first nine months of 2015, the primary energy consumption is expected to be 2,646 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, increase from the same period in 2014 by 2.7 percent. Oil consumption is expected to increase by 4.1 percent as oil prices are likely to decrease. The natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 2.4 percent due to the increasing of power generation by Independent Power Producers (IPP) and Small Power Producer (SPP). The coal consumption is expected to increase by 3.8 percent since been used in industry for the replacement of lignite that was decreased by constraints of volume production of lignite in the country. The consumption of lignite is expected to fall 22.6 percent compared to the same period last year. This is because of the shutdown for maintenance of lignite power plant and the reducing in electricity production of the Mae Moh power plant to make the transmission system more capacity for the synchronize testing of Hongsa power plant. The hydropower and electricity imports consumption are expected to decline 17.2 percent due to low rainfall over the past few years. This cause the amount of water used to produce electricity low. The renewable energy consumption is expected to rise 7.3 percent.
Primary Energy Consumption
Unit: kilo barrels of oil equivalent per day
Remark /1 not include Non – Energy use
/Pestimated from data as of September 2015
In the first nine months of the year 2015, the petroleum products consumption was at 142 million liters per day increased 1.8 percent. The demand of gasoline rose 13.4 percent due to a decrease of domestic gasoline the retail price which was affected by the decline in oil prices in the world market. The expansions of the tourism sector make diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 3.4 and 9.6 percent respectively. Use of fuel oil dropped 5.9 percent from its use as a fuel to produce electricity.
The LPG consumption in the first nine months of 2015 has decreased by 9.4 percent due to lower demand in the high energy consumption proportion economic sector. Consumption in the petrochemical sector which has the highest proportion (32 percent) have decreased by 17.2 percent. In the households sector (with 31 percent share), The LPG consumption have decreased by 4.9 percent and steadily declined since the start of stringent measures to suppress the illegal distribution of LPG misuse. LPG consumption in transportation sector (26 percent share) have decreased 10.8 percent due to an increase in LPG prices, as oil prices fell, some turn to make the use of petroleum fuel, instead of using LPG. While the industrial sector has increased LPG demand by 3.8 percent.
Petroleum Products Consumption
Unit: million liters
Remark LPG include the utilized as feed stock of petrochemical
LPG, Propane and Butane Consumption
Unit: thousand tons
Fuel consumption for land transport
In the first nine months of 2015, the fuel consumption in land transport sector stood at 16 386 kilo tons of oil equivalent (ktoe) increase over the same period of the previous year by 4.0 percent. It is caused by an increase in the use of gasoline and diesel. The diesel (Holds up to 46 percent of energy use in all sectors of land transport) has increased by 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year.While the uses of LPG and NGV in the car (13 and 9 percent, respectively) are down 10.8 and 2.6 percent, respectively, this is a major cause of the decline in prices. Gasoline and diesel steadily since mid-2014, and the price hike of LPG and NGV in 2014 for restructuring policies to reflect the true cost of government. The average retail price of LPG and NGV in the transport sector rose 2.38 and 2.50 baht per kg. The limitations of NGV service stations that still is not enough to make the use of LPG and NGV partial return to the oil.
The current retail price of LPG and NGV is at 22.29 and 13.50 baht per kilogram (Approved by the Board of Directors Energy Policy Administration on September 8, 2015), while the number of NGV service stations at the end of September 2015 totaled 500 stations, up from the previous year, only 4 stations.
The Energy Consumption in Land Transportation Sector
unit : ktoe
Remark /P estimated from data as of September 2015
The production and consumption of electricity during the first nine months of 2015
FT during September - October 2015 stood at 46.38 satang per unit, down 3.23 satang per unit compared with the May - August 2015. In November 2015, the electricity bill will be restructured so the FT from November 2558 will be stood at -3.23 satang per unit.
The electricity consumption during the first nine months of the year 2015is approximated to be 130,800 gigawatt hours. It is increased 3.2 percent due to the hot weather in the summer and rainfall slower than last year. The electricity utilization increased in almost all sectors except agriculture.
The tariff formulated by automatically tariff adjustment formula (Ft).
Unit: Satang/unit
Price and value of Energy Import
Crude oil prices (The average price of Dubai) during the month of September 2015 stood at US $ 45.38 a barrel, down 2.32 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in the month of August 2015 due to the concerns over supply condition.
The price of gasoline and diesel fuel (average price in Singapore market) during the month of September 2015 is at US $ 65.24 a barrel, down 0.74 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in the previous month due to inventory is high. While diesel averaged price is at US $ 59.48 a barrel rose 2.44 US dollars per barrel due to increased demand from China, Vietnam, Myanmar and West Africa and several refineries were shut down for maintenance.
The total energy imported value during the first 9 months of 2015 was estimated at 719 billion baht, down 35.0 percent compared to the same period in 2014 due to a decrease in the price of imported energy. The import value of each type of energy is reduction. Except natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are increasing as the volume of imports. The value of imports increased by 12.2 and 6.1 percent, respectively. The value of crude oil imported fell 39.2 percent according to crude oil price in the world market. The reduction of coal prices in the world market make the coal imported value fell by 4.2 percent compared to the same period last year. The value of imported petroleum products is down 53.6 percent due to the reduction of petroleum products volume and prices. The electricity imported value decreased 4.9 % by the reduction of imported volume.
Energy Imported Value
Unit: billion Baht
Remark /P estimated from data as of September 2015
Trends in energy consumption in 2015
Primary energy demand forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 is estimated at 2623 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day increase of 2.8 percent compared to the same period in 2014. It is expected that there will be increased demand for each kind of energy except the lignite consumption is expected to decrease as domestic production volumes of lignite continues steadily declined. It expected at 21.3 percent demand reduction. Oil consumption is expected to increase by 2.7 percent as oil prices are likely to stay low. It is because of the expansion in tourism sector. It affected that gasoline, diesel and jet fuel consumption has increased as well as the first nine months of 2015. Natural gas consumption during the fourth quarter of 2015 is expected to increase by 0.4 percent. Hydropower / electricity imports are expected to have a 13.8 percent increase. This is because the increasing of electricity imports by the commercial commissioning of Hongsa Power Plant Unit 2 in November 2015. While the use of coal in the fourth quarter of 2558 is expected to increase slightly. (increase 0.1 percent compared to the same period of 22014) and the renewable energy is expected to increase at 12.7 percent by the enhancing renewable energy utilization policies of Ministry of Energy.
The primary energy consumption in 2015 is estimated at 2,640 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day increase 2.7 percent compared with the year 2014. It expand according to the 2015 economic growth. Predicts that the use of oil for the year 2558 will increase by 3.7 percent for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The use of natural gas will increase by 1.9 percent and the coal consumption is expected to increase at 2.8 percent to replace the need of lignite in industrial sector. It is expected that the lignite consumption in 2015 will be down to 22.3 percent based on the decline production volumes by the private of lignite mining and manufacturer. The maintenance of Mae Moh power plant and limitations of the transmission system after the synchronize of Hongsa power plant will decrease the consumption of lignite too. While the use of hydropower and electricity imports are expected to decline 11.9 percent from hydroelectric power drop during the dry season and the less rain fall in 2015. In the year 2015, the renewable energy consumption is expected to increase by 8.6 percent compared to the previous year.
The petroleum products consumption in 2015 is expected to increase by 1.2 percent. The gasoline consumption increased by 12.5 percent due to the drop in gasoline prices, especially in the first half, by the decreasing of gasoline average retail price that affected to rise up the consumption of gasoline to 14.0 percent For diesel, are expected to have increased by 3.3 percent and jet fuel rose 8.1 percent based on the expansion of the tourism sector.
The LPG consumption in 2015 is estimated to have decreased 10.7 percent due to lower demand for household use in the transportation sector and the petrochemical industry. Using the car is expected to decline 11.9 percent due to an increase in LPG prices, as oil prices fell, some turn to make the use of LPG instead of gasoline. The household sector decreased by 4.1 percent. For use in the petrochemical industry is expected to have decreased by 20.6 percent due to the impact of the export slowdown while the manufacturing sector is estimated to have increased by 3.4 percent due to lower prices on the market.
Electricity consumption in 2015 is expected to have a power rating of 173 862 GWh increased 3.1 percent compared to the year 2014. This because the increasing of electricity consumption in almost economic sector except for agriculture which has been affected by drought.
Estimated Primary Energy Consumption
Unit : Kilo Barrel of Oil Equivalent/day
หมายเหตุ /1Not include Non – Energy use
/Pestimated from data as of September 2015
/Festimated from data as of 4th semester of 2015
Energy Forecast and Information Technology Center
Energy Policy and Planning Office
October 28, 2015